[ This year I could not devote time for preparing and posting rain forecast for 2014-5 before the onset of Monsoons due to other preoccupations, including elections. Yet, only a small part of the rainy season has elapsed, hence time is left for preparing a forecast. But the main purpose of this article is to illustrate a technique which is very ancient and based on ancient classics. This technique starts with the Annual chart used by me in all annual rain forecasts ever posted online or sent to scientists through email, but after the Annual Forecast, I showed Nakshatra Pravesha Chakras (NPC) in other online case studies or forecasts which is used by traditional astrologers and even illiterate farmers use the crude form of this NPC technique. The difficulty with NPC was to get finer details within it, for which I used half-degree charts but this was too cumbersome. Here, I am illustrating the five levels of VPC (Varsha Pravesha Chakra) mentioned in Sudarshana Chakra chapter of BPHS (Brihat Parashara Hora Shastra) and used by me in online natal charts at this website, for instance in the article on Late Indira Gandhi.]
Annual Merucentric Chart
Annual World Chart's D1 (first divisional / varga, i.e., Lagna Kundali) is shown below, with relations, friendships, aspects, lordships, and SBC (Sarvato-Bhadra Chakra).
In World Chart of 2014, India falls in teo houses, South India and most of East India fall in 2H (second house) and rest in 3H. 2H contains no planet, and its lord Venus sits in 11H which is bad for Venus but 2L (Lord of 2H) in 11H is good for wealth (it is Dhanayoga). Venus is lord of 2H and 7H, which neutralize each other in other respects but both are bad for longevity and health. Venus has Parivartana (Exchange) relation with Saturn, i.e., both reside in each other's signs. Saturn sits in 8H as 10L (good) and 11L (highly malefic. Saturn is exalted. Exalted planet in 8H gives excessive but destructive rains in 8H. Saturn is retrograde too, which increases its influence. Aspect of Venus on 2H is from 30'(50%) in south to 45' in northern limit of 2H, while aspect of Saturn is from 59' in south to 50' in north of 2H. Saturn and Venus are neutral to each other. Other planets are unrelated to 2H, but Moon, Mars and Rahu have high inimical aspects on 2H while other planets have no aspects. Therefore, overall results for 2H is malefic.
3H is lorded by malefic Mercury which is 3L+6L and debilitated (neecha) in lagna, conjunct with exalted and benefic 5L Sun and a weak malefic 8L Ketu there. Sun and Mercury neutralize each other. They have high aspect relation with weak 1L+8L Mars and malefic 11L Rahu : Mercury being inimical to both. Mercury has high aspect relation to malefic Moon in 6H too.Final result of all these effects for 3H is malefic. Therefore, on the whole annual rains will be below normal in both 2H and 3H.
But it is very difficult to add up results of many planets when they contradict each other. Adding Sun's and Mercury's results, exaltation of Sun is neitralized with debilitation of Mercury, which make the final outcome as normal. Ownership of 5L, 3L and 6L gives preponderance of maleficence because 3L and 6L are both malefics. Thus, final outcome is bad for 3H in which NW and adjoining regions in India.
Exalted Saturn in 8H gives uneven and malefic results but overall rains are normal, while 2L+7L makes Venus normal but sitting in 11H is bad. Hence, adding all these influences makes 2H bad. Now the question is which is worse, 2H or 3H ? In 2H, 6L neutralizes 5L, hence final outcome depends on 3L. For 3H, Saturn gives normal but unevenly distributed rains, while result of Venus is finally decided by its residence in 11H. Thus, the final question whether 3H will get less rains or 2H depends on whether 3L is worse or Venus in 11H is worse. Answer is simple : 3L is worse malefic. Therefore NW India should get less rains than 2H.
IMD Forecast for 2014 Monsoon
IMD (Indian Metereological Department) Forecast for 2014 Monsoon Season of four months Jun-Sep (LINK) was as follows :
Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2014 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be below normal (90-96% of LPA).
Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of the long period average with a model error of ±4%.
Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 85% of LPA over North-West India, 94% of LPA over Central India, 93% of LPA over South Peninsula and 99% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.
The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below [Category of Rainfall Range (% of LPA)] :
Deficient < 90
Below Normal 90 – 96
Normal 96 -104
Above Normal 104 -110
Excess > 110
IMD said the rainfall would be 93% of a benchmark average for 2014 with a model margin of 4%, down from its April prediction of 95% (LINK